Buyers hoping for relief by late 2025 have been frustrated by mortgage rates, which have been trapped in a small range for months. Although rates have decreased from the previous year, the change has been gradual, and the future is largely dependent on inflation, the Federal Reserve, and general economic conditions.

Are Mortgage Rates Actually Dropping?

The answer is complicated. Weekly rate changes have been tiny, but year-over-year numbers show real improvement.

As of Nov. 13, 2025, the average 30-year fixed rate sits at 6.24%, just 2 basis points higher than last week — but 54 basis points lower than November 2024.

The 15-year fixed rate is 5.49%, only 1 basis point down week-to-week but 50 basis points lower year-over-year.

Looking at the past 52 weeks, 30-year rates ranged from 6.17% to 7.04%, while 15-year rates moved between 5.41% and 6.27%. Today’s numbers hover just above annual lows, showing a slow but noticeable downward trend.

However, buyers waiting for rates to hit 6% may be waiting longer than expected. We’re still nearly 25 basis points away — and there’s no guarantee the market will hit that threshold anytime soon.

The Federal Reserve’s Role

In 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate twice, in September and October, although mortgage rates didn’t change significantly. In the past, when markets prepare for policy changes, mortgage rates have decreased before to Fed cutbacks. Rates frequently level off or even increase after reduction.
That pattern repeated in both 2024 and 2025.

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Relationship

Compared to the Fed’s policy rate, mortgage rates more closely track the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond. As of November 12, the yield has decreased from 4.43% to 4.13%.

In fact, the spread—the gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates—has decreased from 2.35% to 2.11%, assisting in the decline of mortgage rates.

However, spreads are still historically high despite a decreased return, maintaining mortgage rates above 6%.

Is Now a Good Time to Purchase?

According to experts, if you can afford it, the answer is undoubtedly yes. Home prices are equally as important as rates when it comes to affordability.

The median price of a single-family home in the US rose from $208,400 in 2009 to $410,800 in Q2 2025 as a result of years of low supply and high demand. Prices have dropped in certain places, but a major drop is still unlikely.

Waiting for significantly lower rates may backfire. If rates fall quickly, buyer competition will surge, pushing prices up again.

Australia: When Will RBA Rate Cuts Bring Real Relief?

In Australia, the Reserve Bank has already cut rates three times in 2025, but major banks disagree about what happens next:

CommBank: No further cuts this cycle

NAB: No further cuts

ANZ: Next cut in Feb 2026

Westpac: Cuts expected in May 2026 and Aug 2026

A typical Australian borrower with a $660,000 loan would save around $100 per month if rates drop from 6.10% to 5.85%, depending on state and lender.

Smart Strategies for Today’s Market

Whether you’re buying in the U.S. or Australia, today’s conditions require flexibility:

✔ Explore less-expensive property types

Condos, townhomes, or smaller homes help buyers enter the market sooner.

✔ Consider a fixer-upper

Loans like FHA 203(k) finance purchase + renovation in one package.

✔ Look farther from city centers

Master-planned communities outside major metros often offer better value.

✔ Compare lenders aggressively

Even small rate differences save thousands over time.

✔ Explore a 15-year loan

Higher payments — but lower rates and massive long-term savings.

✔ Use temporary or permanent rate buydowns

A seller- or lender-funded buydown can make early payments more manageable.

The Big Question: When Will Rates Truly Fall?

Forecasts vary:

The Mortgage Bankers Association expects 30-year rates to stay around 6.4% through 2026.

Fannie Mae is more optimistic, predicting 5.9% by end of 2026.

Most Australian banks don’t expect more RBA cuts until mid–2026.

In both countries, rates may drift lower — but steep declines are unlikely in the near term.

Conclusion

Mortgage and home loan rates are improving slowly, but the days of 3% mortgages are gone for now. Instead of waiting for the perfect rate, buyers may benefit more by purchasing something affordable today and refinancing later when conditions improve.

Sources Used

Yahoo Finance– “When will mortgage rates go down? Rates are barely moving”

Mozo.com.au – “Home loan watch: when will interest rates come down again?”